An Econometric Approach To Tourism Demand And Forecast: Effect Of Fast Urbanization And The Crime Of Kidnapping

Emmanuel Okokondem Okon

Abstract


Tourism is an increasingly vital part of the Nigeria economy. The country has the highest urban population and more large cities than in any other country in sub-Saharan Africa. Recently, the crime of kidnapping has grown as an enigma in its body politic. The aim of this study is to establish an econometric model in order to explain among other factors the effect of fast urbanization and the spate of kidnapping on tourism demand in Nigeria. The study spans 1990 – 2013.  Using the general-to-specific modeling approach, the result suggest that the one year lag of exchange rate, human development index, health risk and crime of kidnapping have significant effect on tourist arrivals to the country. Interestingly, urbanization level does not have a significant influence on tourist arrivals to Nigeria. Attractions for tourists are both natural and cultural.  The implications of these findings for tourism decision making are that monetary authorities in Nigeria should continue to initiate policies and programmes that will stabilize naira exchange rate; effort must be intensified at achieving progress in each of the HDI indicators; efforts should be directed toward controlling malaria in the context of a moderate transmission setting; and government should improve on national security and private volunteers should assist the Nigerian police on information sharing in the effort to stop the menace of kidnapping. A forecast for tourist arrivals to Nigeria for the year 2014 was generated by the study

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Copyright (c) 2016 Emmanuel Okokondem Okon

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