What is the likelihood of Iranian adherence to JCPOA 'Bar-Jaam' is the Persian name for the JCPOA- source- MEMRI, 2016

Elmas Hasanovikj


The road to reaching Joint Comprehensive Plan of Actions(JCPOA) agreement started with the Joint Plan of Action (JPA) agreed between the parties in Geneva on November 24, 2013(Vishwanathan, 2016), followed by the April 2, 2015 political accord at Lausanne which laid down the broad parameters for the JCPOA agreement (Department of State, 2015). On July 14, 2015 the P5+1 country(China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union) have reached a comprehensive nuclear deal with Iran “to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program will be exclusively peaceful”(Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, 2015). The JCPOA agreement is consisted of the agreement itself and five technical annexes on  Nuclear-related measures (Annex I), Sanctions-related commitments  (Annex 2), Civil Nuclear Cooperation (Annex III),  Joint Commission (Annex IV) and Annex V is the Implementation Plan(Samore, 2015). Even though this deal was reached, I argue that it is more likely that Iran will not adhere to agreement. I have conceptualized this paper in two parts by explaining from one hand what is JCPOA and why Iran might not adhere to JCPOA agreement and, on the other hand, what should be done by IAEA to detect Iranian cheating. In the following pages, I will explain each of these points in detail.

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